by Brian Nicholson
Annihilation is on the horizon for the Scottish Liberal Democrats unless the polls turn around dramatically in this election. In 2007, the LibDems gained 16 per cent of the vote in the constituencies and recent polling puts them at less than half of that amount today.
Two weeks ago, we published an estimate of where the LibDem vote will go, and who will benefit. However, that estimate was based on the LibDems holding on to 70 per cent of their 2007 vote. Even the most ardent of LibDems are no longer expecting the vote to remain at that level. As a result, we have revised the projections based on a more prudent expectation where the LibDems only hold on to half their 2007 vote. Recent polling plus the Wick by-election indicate that even this projection is optimistic but it serves for our revised calculation.
The analysis is based on the 2007 actual results reconfigured into 2007 notional results, as prepared by Professor David Denver of Lancaster University.
For the sake of direct calculation, we have assumed the same turnout and same share of the vote for each of the other parties in the election. The only variable is the LibDem vote. This vote has been apportioned according to the following two formulae which it is believed is a reasonable estimation of the range of vote split from the LibDems to the other parties.
The 2007 recorded LibDem vote will be split as follows
| Option 1 | Option 2 | |
| Labour 2: SNP1 | Labour 2: SNP1 | Labour 1: SNP 2 |
| 0 | ||
| Lib Dem retained | 50% | 50% |
| Lib Dem to Labour | 30% | 15% |
| Lib Dem to SNP | 15% | 30% |
| Lib Dem to Conservative | 3% | 3% |
| Lib Dem to other | 2% | 2% |
The intent is to calculate the two extreme options wherein the lost LibDem vote would migrate to the two largest parties.
This change was then applied to the 10 constituencies where Professor Denver calculated that the LibDem Party would still be winners, based on the results of the 2007 Holyrood election transferred to the new boundaries: the Notional 2007 Results.
The results show a staggering impact on the fortunes of the LibDems and may have great impact on which party forms the next Scottish Government.
| 1: Caithness, Sutherland and Ross | ||||||
| Highlands and Islands Region | ||||||
| Notional 2007 Results | Projected 2011 Results | Projected 2011 Results | ||||
| (50LD: 30Lab: 15SNP: 3Con: 2Other) | (50LD: 15Lab: 30SNP: 3Con: 2Other) | |||||
| Lib Dem | 12,030 | (40.4%) | 6,015 | (20.2%) | 6,015 | (20.2%) |
| SNP | 9,480 | (31.9%) | 11,285 | (37.9%) | 13,089 | (44.0%) |
| Labour | 3,941 | (13.2%) | 7,551 | (25.4%) | 5,747 | (19.3%) |
| Conservatives | 3,288 | (11.0%) | 3,649 | (12.3%) | 3,649 | (12.3%) |
| Others | 1,023 | (3.4%) | 1,264 | (4.2%) | 1,264 | (4.2%) |
|
TOTAL VOTES CAST variations due to rounding |
29,763 | 29,764 | 29,764 | |||
| RESULT | SNP Gain | SNP Gain | ||||
| 2: Orkney | ||||||
| Highlands and Islands Region | ||||||
| Notional 2007 Results | Projected 2011 Results | Projected 2011 Results | ||||
| (50LD: 30Lab: 15SNP: 3Con: 2Other) | (50LD: 15Lab: 30SNP: 3Con: 2Other) | |||||
| Lib Dem | 4,113 | (47.5%) | 2,057 | (23.8%) | 2,057 | (23.8%) |
| SNP | 1,637 | (18.9%) | 2,254 | (26.0%) | 2,871 | (33.2%) |
| Conservatives | 1,632 | (18.9%) | 1,755 | (20.3%) | 1,755 | (20.3%) |
| Labour | 1,134 | (13.1%) | 2,368 | (27.4%) | 1,751 | (20.2%) |
| Others | 137 | (1.6%) | 219 | (2.5%) | 219 | (2.5%) |
|
TOTAL VOTES CAST variations due to rounding |
8,653 | 8,653 | 8,653 | |||
| RESULT | Labour Gain | SNP Gain |
||||
| 3: Shetland | ||||||
| Highlands and Islands Region | ||||||
| Notional 2007 Results | Projected 2011 Results | Projected 2011 Results | ||||
| (50LD: 30Lab: 15SNP: 3 Con: 2Other) | (50LD: 15Lab: 30SNP: 3Con: 2Other) | |||||
| Lib Dem | 6,531 | (66.7%) | 3,266 | (33.4%) | 3,266 | (33.4%) |
| SNP | 1,622 | (16.6%) | 2,602 | (26.6%) | 3,581 | (36.6%) |
| Conservatives | 972 | (9.9%) | 1,168 | (11.9%) | 1,168 | (11.9%) |
| Labour | 670 | (6.8%) | 2,629 | (26.8%) | 1,650 | (16.9%) |
| Others | 0 | (0.0%) | 131 | (1.4%) | 131 | (1.4%) |
|
TOTAL VOTES CAST variations due to rounding |
9,795 | 9,796 | 29,796 | |||
| RESULT | Lib Dem hold | SNP Gain |
||||
| 4: Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch | ||||||
| Highlands and Islands Region | ||||||
| Notional 2007 Results | Projected 2011 Results | Projected 2011 Results | ||||
| (50LD: 30Lab: 15SNP: 3Con: 2Other) | (50LD: 15Lab: 30SNP: 3Con: 2Other) | |||||
| Lib Dem | 11,318 | (41.8%) | 5,659 | (20.9%) | 5,659 | (20.9%) |
| SNP | 8,534 | (31.6%) | 10,232 | (37.8%) | 11,929 | (44.1%) |
| Labour | 3,857 | (14.3%) | 7,252 | (26.8%) | 5,555 | (20.5%) |
| Conservatives | 3,170 | (11.7%) | 3,510 | (13.0%) | 3,510 | (13.0%) |
| Others | 170 | (0.6%) | 396 | (1.5%) | 396 | (1.5%) |
|
TOTAL VOTES CAST variations due to rounding |
27,049 | 27,049 | 27,049 | |||
| RESULT | SNP Gain | SNP Gain |
||||
| 5: Edinburgh Central | ||||||
| Lothian Region | ||||||
| Notional 2007 Results | Projected 2011 Results | Projected 2011 Results | ||||
| (50LD: 30Lab: 15SNP: 3Con: 2Other) | (50LD: 15Lab: 30SNP: 3Con: 2Other) | |||||
| Lib Dem | 8,679 | (30.8%) | 4,340 | (15.4%) | 4,340 | (15.4%) |
| Labour | 7,960 | (28.2%) | 10,564 | (37.4%) | 9,262 | (32.8%) |
| SNP | 6,392 | (22.6%) | 7,694 | (27.3%) | 8,996 | (31.9%) |
| Conservatives | 5,173 | (18.3%) | 5,433 | (19.2%) | 5,433 | (19.2%) |
| Others | 20 | (0.1%) | 194 | (0.7%) | 194 | (0.7%) |
|
TOTAL VOTES CAST variations due to rounding |
28,224 | 28,224 | 28,224 | |||
| RESULT | Labour Gain | Labour Gain |
||||
| 6: Edinburgh West | ||||||
| Lothian Region | ||||||
| Notional 2007 Results | Projected 2011 Results | Projected 2011 Results | ||||
| (50LD: 30Lab: 15SNP: 3Con: 2Other) | (50LD: 15Lab: 30SNP: 3Con: 2Other) | |||||
| Lib Dem | 13,300 | (39.6%) | 6,650 | (19.8%) | 6,650 | (20.2%) |
| SNP | 7,541 | (22.5%) | 9,536 | (28.4%) | 11,531 | (34.4%) |
| Conservatives | 7,018 | (20.9%) | 7,417 | (22.1%) | 7,417 | (22.1%) |
| Labour | 5,156 | (15.4%) | 9,146 | (27.3%) | 7,151 | (21.3%) |
| Others | 546 | (1.6%) | 812 | (2.4%) | 812 | (2.4%) |
|
TOTAL VOTES CAST variations due to rounding |
33,561 | 33,561 | 33,561 | |||
| RESULT | SNP Gain | SNP Gain |
||||
| 7: Edinburgh South | ||||||
| Lothian Region | ||||||
| Notional 2007 Results | Projected 2011 Results | Projected 2011 Results | ||||
| (50LD: 30Lab: 15SNP: 3Con: 2Other) | (50LD: 15Lab: 30SNP: 3Con: 2Other) | |||||
| Lib Dem | 11,731 | (36.4%) | 5,866 | (18.2%) | 5,866 | (18.2%) |
| Labour | 7,776 | (21.4%) | 11,295 | (35.0%) | 9,536 | (29.6%) |
| Conservatives | 7,194 | (22.3%) | 7,546 | (23.4%) | 7,546 | (23.4%) |
| SNP | 5,533 | (17.2%) | 7,293 | (22.6%) | 9,052 | (28.1%) |
| Others | 0 | (0.0%) | 235 | (0.3%) | 235 | (0.3%) |
|
TOTAL VOTES CAST variations due to rounding |
32,325 | 32,235 | 32,235 | |||
| RESULT | Labour Gain | Labour Gain |
||||
| 8: Aberdeen South and North Kincardine | ||||||
| North East Scotland Region | ||||||
| Notional 2007 Results | Projected 2011 Results | Projected 2011 Results | ||||
| (50LD: 30Lab: 15SNP: 3Con: 2Other) | (50LD: 15Lab: 30SNP: 3Con: 2Other) | |||||
| Lib Dem | 10,134 | (35.8%) | 5,067 | (17.9%) | 5,067 | (17.9%) |
| SNP | 8,063 | (28.5%) | 9,583 | (33.8%) | 11,103 | (39.2%) |
| Labour | 5,080 | (17.9%) | 8,120 | (28.7%) | 6,600 | (23.3%) |
| Conservatives | 5,040 | (17.8%) | 5,344 | (18.9%) | 5,344 | (18.9%) |
| Others | 0 | (0.0%) | 203 | (0.7%) | 203 | (0.7%) |
|
TOTAL VOTES CAST variations due to rounding |
28,317 | 28,317 | 28,317 | |||
| RESULT | SNP Gain | SNP Gain |
||||
| 9: Aberdeenshire West | ||||||
| North East Scotland Region | ||||||
| Notional 2007 Results | Projected 2011 Results | Projected 2011 Results | ||||
| (50LD: 30Lab: 15SNP: 3Con: 2 Other) | (50LD – 15Lab: 30SNP: 3Con: 2 Other) | |||||
| Lib Dem | 12,332 | (40.9%) | 6,166 | (20.5%) | 6,166 | (20.5%) |
| SNP | 8,553 | (28.4%) | 10,403 | (34.5%) | 12,253 | (40.7%) |
| Conservatives | 7,387 | (24.5%) | 7,757 | (25.7%) | 7,757 | (25.7%) |
| Labour | 1,753 | (5.8%) | 5,453 | (18.1%) | 3,603 | (12.0%) |
| Others | 111 | (0.4%) | 358 | (1.2%) | 358 | (1.2%) |
|
TOTAL VOTES CAST variations due to rounding |
30,136 | 30,136 | 30,136 | |||
| RESULT | SNP Gain | SNP Gain |
||||
| 10: North East Fife | ||||||
| Mid Scotland and Fife Region | ||||||
| Notional 2007 Results | Projected 2011 Results | Projected 2011 Results | ||||
| (50LD: 30Lab: 15SNP: 3Con: 2Other) | (50LD: 15Lab: 30SNP: 3 Con: 2Other) | |||||
| Lib Dem | 12,435 | (42.3%) | 6,218 | (21.2%) | 6,218 | (21.2%) |
| Conservative | 7,869 | (26.7%) | 8,242 | (28.0%) | 8,242 | (28.0%) |
| SNP | 6,169 | (21.0%) | 8,034 | (27.3%) | 9,900 | (33.7%) |
| Labour | 2,312 | (7.9%) | 6,043 | (20.5%) | 4,177 | (14.2%) |
| Others | 638 | (2.2%) | 887 | (3.0%) | 887 | (3.0%) |
|
TOTAL VOTES CAST variations due to rounding |
29,423 | 29,423 | 29,423 | |||
| RESULT | Conservative Gain | SNP Gain |
||||
Analysis
If the polls are correct and the Liberal Democratic vote is dropping by at least half, then it appears that the party is in serious danger of being wiped out in all the constituencies. Even the bedrocks of Orkney, Shetland, and North East Fife are endangered by the collapse.
The prime beneficiary of the drop appears to be the Scottish National Party who are poised to take the constituencies of CAITHNESS, SUTHERLAND AND ROSS; SKYE, LOCHABER AND BADENOCH; ABERDEEN SOUTH AND NORTH KINCARDINE; ABERDEENSHIRE WEST; and EDINBURGH WEST. They also have the potential to pick up in ORKNEY, SHETLAND AND NORTH EAST FIFE.
Labour is also poised to pick up EDINBURGH SOUTH and EDINBURGH CENTRAL and have an outside chance in ORKNEY.
Even the Conservative and Unionists have a chance to pick up NORTH EAST FIFE in a close and split vote.
Without a major turnaround in the polling figures, the Liberal Democrat constituencies face annihilation with only SHETLAND possibly holding out for the party. Party leader Tavish Scott may be the only consituency MSP for the LibDems in the new Parliament.
Already we see the SNP moving resources into these areas hoping to pick them off. In the next few weeks, expect to see all hands on deck in the LibDem ship as they try to stave off a disaster. Look for any movement of Conservative resources into North West Fife as well. That step might confirm an impending meltdown for the LibDems.
The impact of the collapsing LibDem vote may also impact a great number of Labour-SNP marginals. Depending on where that vote ends up, it could be a significant swing to one or the other.
Where goeth the LibDem vote may very well decide this election.{jcomments on}
| 1: Caithness, Sutherland and Ross | ||||||
| Highlands and Islands Region | ||||||
| Notional 2007 Results | Projected 2011 Results | Projected 2011 Results | ||||
| (50 LD – 30 Lab – 15 SNP – 3 Con – 2 Others) | (50 LD – 15 lab – 30 SNP – 3 Con – 2 Others | |||||
| Lib Dem | 12,030 | (40.4%) | 6,015 | (20.2%) | 6,015 | (20.2%) |
| SNP | 9,480 | (31.9%) | 11,285 | (37.9%) | 13,089 | (44.0%) |
| Labour | 3,941 | (13.2%) | 7,551 | (25.4%) | 5,747 | (19.3%) |
| Conservatives | 3,288 | (11.0%) | 3,649 | (12.3%) | 3,649 | (12.3%) |
| Others | 1,023 | (3.4%) | 1,264 | (4.2%) | 1,264 | (4.2%) |
|
TOTAL VOTES CAST variations due to rounding |
29,763 | 29,764 | 29,764 | |||
| RESULT | SNP Gain | SNP Gain |
||||
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