Boost for Yes as poll shows new high amongst definite voters

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  By a Newsnet reporter

The Yes campaign has received a welcome boost after results of a new survey placed them on a new high amongst voters who say they will definitely vote in September’s referendum.

The latest TNS survey shows Yes on 38 per cent with No static on 46 per cent and undecided on 16 per cent.

Compared with the last poll the result is an increase of 1 per cent for Yes giving a new high for the pro-independence campaign.  Excluding undecided voters, the TNS survey puts Yes at 45 per cent and No at 55 per cent.

Including all voters, the results showed No on 45%, Yes on 32% with 23% undecided.  Despite this, the Better Together camp will be concerned that amongst definite voters their support has fallen.  The TNS survey mirrors similar findings from a recent Yougov poll which found support for Yes up amongst this same group.

Commenting on the latest survey, Yes Scotland Chief Executive Blair Jenkins said:

“These are encouraging findings – among those in the TNS poll who are certain to vote, the gap has narrowed further this month, putting Yes at a new high.  Once don’t knows are excluded, Yes is at 45 per cent, and two other recent polls put Yes support as high as 47 per cent – within touching distance of a majority in September.”

Better Together campaign director Blair McDougall said: “Alex Salmond had the chance to be honest with people about Scotland, about the risks of independence, but he failed to do so.

“It’s no wonder Scots are rejecting separation when we don’t know what money our wages, pensions or benefits would be paid in if we left the UK.

“Alex Salmond can’t expect us to take a leap in the dark on the basis of his blind faith.”

Tom Costley, head of TNS Scotland, said: “The fact that opinion among those certain to vote is holding steady is consistent with our previous polling, which has shown voters on both sides are firmly committed to their views.

“With only a few weeks until the referendum, the hopes of the Yes campaign rest on winning over most of the dwindling number of undecided voters. At the end of last year, 25 per cent of those who said they were certain to vote had not made up their minds: that important pool of voters is now a third smaller.”

He added: “While it would appear that there is still a lot of uncertainty about what will follow a Yes vote, the lack of clarity about a No vote suggests many are still unsure about the additional powers being offered to Scotland by the main unionist parties.”

The TNS independence poll followed the latest Scottish Social Attitudes survey which shows that the ‘Yes’ option of the Scottish Parliament making all the decisions for Scotland is by far the most popular (change on the 2013 survey in brackets):

The survey found:

* The Scottish Parliament should make all decisions for Scotland: 41% (+10)
* The UK government should make decisions about defence and foreign affairs; the Scottish Parliament should decide everything else: 29% (-3)
* The UK government should make decisions about taxes, benefits and defence and foreign affairs; the Scottish Parliament should decide the rest: 22% (-3)
* The UK government should make all decisions for Scotland: 6% (-2)
* Don’t know/refused: 3% (-1)

Blair Jenkins, commenting on the survey findings said: “And the Scottish Social Attitudes survey shows that the Scottish Parliament making all the decisions for Scotland is by far the most popular option – having increased by 10 points since last year. That is exactly what a Yes vote will deliver, and what the referendum is all about.

“A Yes vote is our one opportunity to protect the NHS from Westminster privatisation, create more jobs in Scotland, and transform childcare instead of wasting billions of pounds on Trident nuclear weapons.”