Claims of post-indy financial collapse ‘exaggerated’ says banking giant


  By a Newsnet reporter
Some of the terrifying forecasts of the impact of a Yes vote have been exaggerated a leading finacial giant has said.
German firm Commerzbank has dismissed suggestions that Scottish independence could lead to another ‘Great Depresison’ or be ‘cataclysmic’.

The bank’s economists have said that “some of the worst case scenarios painted in recent days appear exaggerated,”.

Economist Peter Dixon said: “Whilst the Scottish independence vote has raged, I am struck by just how little the markets have actually moved so far.”

He adds: “Whilst we believe that the economic case set out by the nationalists is way too light on detail, it is also hard to avoid the view that some of the worst case scenarios set out in recent days are also overdoing the gloom.”

The economist also questioned whether an independent Scotland would affect shares across the rest of the UK: “Should we fear a wholesale UK market collapse? In a word, no.”

Dixon provided evidence that showed, far from shares in Scottish firms falling as a result of the independence referendum, Scottish shares have actually outperformed those of the UK as a whole this year.

The issue of the economy has dominated media coverage of the independence debate with both sides focusing on what they say is the best option for Scotland.

The No campaign seized on a statement from Germany’s Deutsche Bank which claimed a Yes vote in the independence referendum could trigger a 1930s style depression.  David Folkerts-Landau, Chief Economist of Deutsche Bank, claimed that Scotland would trigger a “Great Depression” if independent.

Multi-millionaire Folkerts-Landau, who is said to be good friends with UK Prime Minister David Cameron, spoke out after polls showed a surge in support for Yes.  Yesterday the editor of the Financial Times said that Mr Cameron and the UK’s top Civil Servant Sir Jeremy Heywood had been contacting businesses in an effort at pressurising them to speak out against independence.

The pressure resulted in several big business issuing statements apparently opposing a Yes vote as the No campaign sought to regain the campaign momentum from its Yes rival with just two days to go until the referendum.

The comments from Commerzbank challenging the No campaign narrative follows statements from other leading firms suggesting independence would be a great opportunity.

JD Wetherspoon chairman Tim Martin said an independent Scotland could thrive.  Martin Gilbert, chief executive of Aberdeen Asset Management, said he thought Scotland would prosper whatever the outcome of the referendum.