Double poll boost for Yes as support climbs to campaign high

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  By Martin Kelly
 
Two new polls published today have shown support for Yes continuing to rise with a corresponding fall in support for No.
 
An ICM poll for the Scotland on Sunday newspaper found 36 per cent said they would back Yes (up 2) with 43 per cent saying they supported No (down 3).  Without undecided it shows a 55% No – 45% Yes split.

The ICM survey was conducted between 9-12 June and consulted 1003 people.

Another survey also published today and carried out by Panelbase on behalf of the Yes Scotland campaign, has found support for Yes at its highest level ever.  According to Panelbase support for Yes has climbed to 43 per cent, with those backing No on 47 per cent.

Stripping out the undecided it shows a 52% No – 48% Yes.  This is similar to the Survation/Daily Record poll last week which put Yes at 47% – which was the best Survation poll of the campaign so far for Yes.
 
The Panelbase/Yes Scotland poll was conducted from 9-11 June, among 1,060 people in Scotland aged 16 plus – which was from the start of the 100 days to go point to the referendum.

Other findings of the Panelbase survey included:

  • Among women, on a straight Yes/No basis, support for independence is at 41%. Among men it is 56%.
  • Among Labour voters in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, 34% are voting Yes.
  • Among people in the ABC1 socio-economic group, Yes support is at 41%.
  • Among people in the C2DE category, Yes is at 55%.

The panelbase poll also asked people to give their view on the referendum depending on the outcome of a Westminster election.

It found Yes is ahead when people are asked how they are likely to vote on the scenario of a Tory-led government or Tory/Lib Dem coalition – and reaches 50 per cent on a Labour-led government scenario.  This suggests that as people think about Westminster – regardless of who is in office – as well as an independent Scotland, they become more supportive of Yes.

“If you felt the 2015 UK general election was going to result in a Conservative-led government, or another Conservative / Liberal Democrat coalition at Westminster, would you be likely or unlikely to vote for an independent Scotland in the referendum?”

Very likely to vote for Scottish independence: 43%
Quite likely to vote for Scottish independence: 7%
TOTAL LIKELY: 49% (not 50% due to rounding factors)

Quite unlikely to vote for Scottish independence: 8%
Very unlikely to vote for Scottish independence: 33%
TOTAL UNLIKELY: 41%
Don’t know: 10%

Excluding ‘don’t knows’, this results in:

Yes: 55%
No: 45%

“If you felt the 2015 UK general election was going to result in a Labour-led government at Westminster, would you be likely or unlikely to vote for an independent Scotland in the referendum?”

Very likely to vote for Scottish independence: 35%
Quite likely to vote for Scottish independence: 10%
TOTAL LIKELY: 45%

Quite unlikely to vote for Scottish independence: 11%
Very unlikely to vote for Scottish independence: 33%
TOTAL UNLIKELY: 45% (not 44% due to rounding factors)
Don’t know: 11%

Excluding ‘don’t knows’, this results in:

Yes: 50%
No: 50%

Blair Jenkins, Chief Executive of Yes Scotland, said: “The Panelbase poll is a breakthrough, putting support for Yes at a campaign high – it shows that our message that only with independence can the wealth of Scotland work for all the people is getting through.
 
“We now have three polls in recent days to record a significant increase in support for Yes – with average Yes support of 47 per cent – which puts us in touching distance of success in September.

“The polls show that the relentless negativity of the No side isn’t working, and is being rejected by the people of Scotland. The Yes campaign will continue to set out our positive vision of a better future, and we are confident that message of hope and aspiration will continue to gain ground and deliver a Yes vote on 18 September.

“As people focus on Westminster as well as on an independent Scotland, support for Yes becomes stronger still – 10 points ahead on a Tory government scenario, and neck-and-neck on the basis of a Labour government.
 
“And in our view the ‘internationalisation’ of the debate, with people like President Obama talking about Scotland – and the acceptance across the political spectrum that Scotland needs more powers – are galvanising the Yes vote.”

Better Together refused to comment on the Panelbase poll, telling the Sunday Herald: “It’s impossible to comment on a poll that’s not been shared with us.”

However the anti-independence group did provide a statement to the Scotland on Sunday newspaper in response to the new ICM survey.  Better Together campaign director Blair McDougall said: “This is another poll showing our campaign in the lead and support for independence lower than at the start of the year.

“After the week of abuse directed at two inspirational women who happen to be voting No, it’s little surprise that Scots fear a divided nation.

“Our campaign offers people in Scotland something we can all unite around. We want Scotland to have the best of both worlds – an even stronger Scottish Parliament, with more powers for Scotland, backed up by the strength, security and stability of being part of the larger UK.

“That’s why we will be working flat out as a campaign to make sure Scots say ‘no thanks’ to separation in September.”