Ipsos MORI poll shows 7-point Yes surge on eve of Referendum


  By Martin Kelly
Two newly published polls have underlined the closeness of the independence referendum with voters due to cast their votes tomorrow.
The surveys from Panelbase and Ipsos MORI follow three other polls from yesterday which all show the result of tomorrow’s historic ballot is too close to call.

Panelbase has revealed its last poll result shows Yes on 48% and No on 52%.  The 52%-48% result echoed three other polls released yesterday. The surveys, for Opinium, ICM and Survation, all put Yes on 48% and No on 52% when undecideds were stripped out.

However another survey carried out by Ipsos MORI has indicated an even closer result in the offing with Yes on 49% and No on 51%.

The Ipsos MORI poll, carried out on behalf of STV, reveals a rise in support for Yes of seven per cent, with a corresponding drop of seven per cent for its No rival.

Yes Scotland Chief Executive Blair Jenkins tonight welcomed the new Ipsos MORI poll.  Among all the pollsters, MORI has tended to show the lowest level of support for independence – it put Yes at just 36 per cent in February, with No at 64 per cent.

Mr Jenkins said:

“This is hugely encouraging, and demonstrates that Yes has the momentum as we go into Referendum Day – with a 7-point surge since last month.

“This poll – like all the recent polls – show that we are in touching distance of success. The referendum is on a knife edge, and this will spur on everybody who wants and is working hard for a Yes to redouble their efforts.

“People know that a Yes vote is Scotland’s one opportunity to achieve job-creating powers, protect our NHS from the damaging impact of Westminster cuts and privatisation, and ensure that never again do we get Tory governments imposed on Scotland that we have roundly rejected.

“The empty offer of a very few more powers from the No campaign has unravelled within 24 hours, in the face of a Tory revolt at Westminster. Only a Yes vote can secure all the powers that Scotland needs to create more jobs and secure our NHS for the future.

“As we say in response to all the polls, we are working flat out to ensure that we achieve a Yes vote, because it’s the biggest opportunity we will ever have to build a fairer society and more prosperous economy.

“This referendum is unlike any that has been held before because of an expected record turnout – which we believe will favour the Yes vote.”