New poll shows Yes and No virtually neck-and neck

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  By a Newsnet reporter
 
The independence referendum has taken another dramatic turn with a new poll showing the gap between Yes and No is now sitting at just five points.
 
A Survation poll, commissioned on behalf of the Daily Record, puts Yes on 39% with No on 44%.

The new poll puts support for independence up two points and those against down three when compared to a similar survey four weeks ago.

Stripping out those who are undecided, the poll has Yes on 47% and No on 53%.

The survey also found that most Scots will vote Yes if they believe the Conservatives will win the next UK election.

Asked for their views if David Cameron remains PM, most said they would vote Yes – 44% – against only 38% who would vote No.  This would give the Yes campaign a 54% v 46% lead with undecided stripped out.

Speaking to the Daily Record, polling expert John Curtice said: “This should act as a warning sign to the No side that they can take nothing for granted about the result.”

The Strathclyde University professor added: “One of the things to watch over the summer is that a rise in the polls for the Tories as far as the Westminster general election is concerned could mean some Scots reconsidering their referendum vote.”

The results will cause significant concern to the No campaign with the poll confirming the trend from No to Yes.  It comes as the Conservatives continue to erode the lead enjoyed by the Labour party across the UK with recent polls showing David Cameron’s party now virtually neck and neck with Ed Miliband’s Labour party.

Commenting, Yes Scotland chief executive Blair Jenkins said: “This poll confirms the Yes message that Scotland is an exceptionally wealthy country – more prosperous per head than the UK, France and Japan – but that we need independence to make our wealth work for all the people – is getting through. This is the best Survation poll of the campaign so far – the gap between Yes and No has halved since last month – and Yes now only needs a three-point swing to move ahead.

“The poll also highlights the strong appeal of the guarantee that Scotland always gets the government we vote for only with independence – instead of being inflicted with Tory governments under the Westminster system.

“If people think the Tories are getting back in next year, Yes leads No by 54 per cent to 46 per cent, excluding undecideds. This independence guarantee is undoubtedly a major factor in persuading more and more Labour voters and members to vote Yes, and we believe this support will continue to grow in the run-up to 18 September.”

Better Together chief Blair McDougall highlighted his campaign’s lead, and said: “This is yet another poll showing the campaign to keep Scotland in the UK ahead.”

He added: “there can be no complacency from those of us who passionately believe that being part of the UK secures the brightest future for Scotland.”