Poll boost for Yes as indy race hots up


  By a Newsnet reporter
The campaign for Scottish independence has received a boost with the publication of the latest survey showing a five point swing is all that is required to ensure a win for Yes in September.
A new survey carried out by Survation on behalf of the Daily Record has revealed the gap between Yes and No stands at just nine points.

Support for independence, according to the Survation poll, is 39.3% with those opposing on 47.6% and 13.1% undecided.  Stripping out the don’t knows gives Yes and No 45% and 55% respectively.

Compared to an earlier poll carried out by the same company in February, Yes is up 1.6 points, No is up by 1 point and the Don’t Knows down by 2.6 points.

The Daily Record survey follows the ramping up of attacks by the No campaign with several big businesses issuing statements citing ‘concerns’ over the prospect of a Yes vote.  The statements from companies like Standard Life and Alliance Trust have coincided with a sustained attack on the post referendum currency plans of the Scottish Government.

Despite the attacks, the Survation poll which was carried out on 6th and 7th March, shows support for a Yes vote at its highest level since last summer – with only a 5 point swing required to put Yes ahead.  The survey, which polled 1002 people, also showed the SNP maintaining a commanding lead over the Scottish Labour party for the Holyrood elections.

Commenting on the poll, Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said:

“This is another remarkable poll which not only shows increasing support for a Yes vote in September – the highest level of support for an independent Scotland since last summer – but also the SNP maintaining a strong lead both at Westminster and Holyrood.

“After nearly seven years in Government the SNP remains the most popular party, winning support from 45 per cent of those polled on the constituency vote and 40 per cent on the regional list vote.”

“This is a considerable achievement and shows that people in Scotland are satisfied with the SNP Government’s actions to protect hard pressed family budgets with policies such as free tuition, free prescriptions, the Council Tax Freeze and free personal care.

“As the poll shows, a Yes vote is firmly within our grasp – only a 5 point swing is needed to put Yes ahead. With independence we can build on the SNP’s success in Government, using the full powers only independence will bring to make Scotland fairer.”

The survey asked respondents how they would vote in the Scottish parliamentary election.  The result for the constituency vote – difference from previous survey in brackets – was SNP 45% (+1), Labour 34% (+3), Conservative 13% (nc), Liberal Democrat 5% (-1) and other parties 3%(-3).

The regional list vote was SNP 40%, Labour 28%, Conservative 11%, Liberal Democrat 7%, Scottish Green Party 8% and UKIP 5%.  Regional results are not comparable to previous polling because two parties – UKIP and the Scottish Green Party – were added to the responses that were prompted in the latest survey.

Westminster intentions also showed the SNP remain ahead of Labour 38% to 36%, Ed Miliband’s party having picked up 3% compared with the previous poll.

Tables for latest survey available here: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Daily-Record-Tables-Full.pdf