Poll shows Yes ahead no matter who leads UK government


By a Newsnet reporter

The SNP have released more details of the Panelbase Poll that they recently commissioned which showed support in the referendum for ‘Yes’ a point ahead of that for ‘No’. The new results show that this lead becomes greater when people are asked to take into account which party might form the government at Westminster in 2015

The headline figures put support for a Yes vote at 44% and that for a No vote at 43%.  When people were asked if they would be more or less likely to vote for independence if there were a Conservative led government or a Conservative/LibDem coalition at Westminster this lead hardens to a total of 50%  likely to vote Yes to independence (41% very likely, 9% quite likely).  A total of 41% would vote No with 8% who don’t know.

Polls have previously shown that a Conservative government in Westminster would make a ‘Yes’ vote more likely but this latest poll shows that a Labour led government at Westminster would also make a ‘Yes’ vote more likely, though by slightly less, with 47% likely and 42% unlikely to vote for an independent Scotland.

Commenting on the findings, Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said:

“These are extremely positive findings, showing Yes ahead under the scenarios of both Tory and Labour governments at Westminster – they reinforce the other key result that people trust the Scottish Government rather than Westminster to take decisions for Scotland by a margin of nearly four-to-one.  These conclusions all underline the strength and potential of the Yes vote.

“Polls will move up and down between now and next September as the debate over Scotland’s future gathers pace – but what these very encouraging figures underline is that Yes can win and I believe will win next September.”

The Panelbase poll also asked

* There will be a referendum on an independent Scotland on 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?

(Change from July 2013 Panelbase/Sunday Times poll in brackets):
Yes: 44% (+7)
No: 43% (-3)
Don’t Know: 13% (-4)

* Who do you trust to take the best decisions for Scotland: the Scottish Government or the Westminster Government?

The Scottish Government: 60%
The Westminster Government: 16%
Neither: 19%
Don’t Know: 5%

* Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: ‘Scotland could be a successful independent country’.
Yes, I agree: 52%
No, I disagree: 37%
Don’t Know: 11%