Polling analysis reveals month-on-month rise for Yes


  By Martin Kelly
Results from opinion polls carried out over the last four months have suggested ongoing rising support for the Yes campaign.
The Scottish National Party has published a new analysis of surveys – a rolling monthly average of the 17 referendum polls since last November across different polling organisations, which shows a steady increase in Yes support month-on-month.

The results which exclude ‘don’t knows’ – shows that average Yes polling support in November was 38%, December 39%, January 41%, and February 43%.  Support for No over the same period was 62%, 61%, 59% and 57%.

According to the analysis, the average monthly gap between Yes and No has closed by 10 points between last November and February.

This analysis also includes the two polls published on Sunday which were carried out by ICM on behalf of Scotland on Sunday and Panelbase which was commissioned by the SNP.

Commenting, SNP Business Convener Derek Mackay said:

“These figures indicate the underlying trend of rising Yes support month-on-month since the white paper publication – including after George Osborne’s sermon on the pound – which is very encouraging.

“There is a long way to go to 18 September, but the direction of travel in the polls is clear – Yes going up and No going down.  And we will be working extremely hard to build on the momentum for Yes, and win the referendum so that Scotland’s future is in Scotland’s hands.”

The analysis, which does not include a recent ScotPulse survey published last week, which indicated 50 per cent support for Yes and No after ‘don’t knows’ we’re excluded, follows several surveys which suggested the recent announcement by UK Chancellor George Osborne over a currency union had pushed more Scots towards Yes, than No.

Today PM David Cameron will bring his cabinet to Scotland in a continued effort to try to persuade Scots to vote No in September.  The Conservative leader has faced repeated calls to meet First Minister Alex Salmond in a televised debate on independence.

The visit from Mr Cameron’s cabinet coincides with a similar trip by Scottish Government ministers who will visit Portlethen where the Scottish Cabinet will undertake the second in a series of meetings outside of Edinburgh.

The Scottish cabinet meeting will be followed by a public discussion, where people in Aberdeenshire will have an opportunity to question the First Minister and his cabinet colleagues on Scotland’s Future, the Scottish Government’s white paper on an independent Scotland.