Referendum too close to call according to new poll

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  The Yes campaign is now within touching distance of success in September, according to a new Survation poll.

In today’s Daily Record, the pro-independence side has moved up two points to 41% – just 5 points behind No support.

That result is Yes Scotland’s highest showing in a Survation poll so far – and when undecideds are removed Yes support is 47% to 53% for No, meaning that a swing of only three per cent is needed for a Yes win.

Chief Executive Blair Jenkins described the poll as ‘extremely encouraging’ and proof that the more people are hear the case for independence, the more likely they are to vote Yes.

Mr Jenkins said: “This is the highest level of support for Yes so far in the Daily Record/Survation polls, and is extremely encouraging – only a three per cent swing is required to produce a Yes majority in September.

“It confirms that the Yes message is getting through – that Scotland is an exceptionally wealthy country, more prosperous per head than the UK, France and Japan – but that only with independence can we make our wealth work for all the people.

“The poll also highlights the strong appeal of the guarantee that Scotland always gets the government we vote for only with independence, instead of being stuck with Tory governments under the Westminster system.

“The independence guarantee is undoubtedly a major factor in persuading more and more Labour voters and members to vote Yes, and we believe this support will continue to grow in the run-up to September 18, now less than 10 weeks away.

“In line with Yes Scotland’s calls for a courteous and respectful debate, it’s heartening that four out of five people say they have had no arguments with family or friends over referendum issues.”

The Survation poll also put the SNP well in front for Holyrood voting intentions, more than seven years after first taking office, with a 13.5 per cent lead over Labour on the constituency vote.

The poll puts support for the SNP at 44.1 per cent in constituency voting intentions and 36.9 per cent in regional voting intentions, compared to 30.6 per cent and 25.7 per cent respectively for Labour. The same poll puts support for the Conservatives at 13.3 per cent in the constituency vote and 12.9 per cent on the regional vote, while backing for the LibDems stands at 5.1 per cent and 7.3 per cent respectively.

This double-digit SNP lead contrasts with opinion polling at the same stage of the SNP’s first term in office, when a TNS poll conducted in July 2010 had Labour ahead of the SNP by 14 points in the constituency vote, and 12 points on the list vote. Despite that, the SNP went on to record a landslide victory, securing a majority in the Scottish Parliament in 2011.

Commenting, SNP Business Convener Derek Mackay said:

“This poll giving the SNP a double-digit lead for the next Holyrood election is a fantastic vote of confidence in the SNP Government more than seven years in office. The figures are devastating for Labour, who are in a much weaker position now than at the same stage of the last parliament, when they had a double-digit lead – and the SNP went on to win an overall majority.

“The poll shows that people across Scotland are continuing to back the SNP’s track record of delivering jobs, boosting Scotland’s economy, and standing up for Scotland’s interests in the face of Westminster cuts.

“With reports of feuds growing in the ranks of the Labour party, this latest poll will only increase the pressure on Johann Lamont.

“This poll also confirms that the referendum is there to be won by Yes, with just a 3 per cent swing required to secure a Yes vote in September.”