SNP welcomes ‘significant boost’ for Yes as poll reveals party would retain Holyrood majority


  The SNP has welcomed a new poll which shows support for Yes continuing to grow – and the party on course to retain its majority with an 18 points lead over Labour.

A Survation poll – which was commissioned by the Daily Record – found a swing of just three points is needed for Yes to take the lead over its No rival.

The survey found support for an independent Scotland at 47 per cent once undecided voters are excluded, with No on 53 per cent.  This result is the pollster’s highest recorded support for Yes at any point in the campaign so far and shows support up three points in just one month.

The poll also found increased support for a Yes vote if voters believed there would be another Tory government with 54 per cent of those who expressed a view opting for independence.

The findings were described as a “significant boost” to the Yes campaign by director of the University of Dundee’s Five Million Questions initiative Michael Marra.

The survey also asked respondents who they would support in a Scottish Parliamentary election.

On party ratings the SNP remain the most popular party, with support at 46.2 per cent overall – an 18 point lead over Labour.  The poll also finds if a Scottish Parliamentary election was held today with this result, the SNP would retain its majority retaining the 65 seats currently held.

The Scottish Greens would climb to an incredible 11 MSPs, Labour would remain on 37, the Conservatives would drop from 15 to 10 and the Lib Dems would return 6 MSPs – up 1.

Commenting, Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said:

“This is a fantastic poll showing we are closer than ever to achieving a Yes vote as support continues to grow across the country.  As we enter into the last 100 days of the campaign, the momentum is building with Yes as more and more people realise that Scotland absolutely has what it takes to be an independent country.

“The poll is further evidence that we are making progress – and we must continue to work hard in the final weeks and months of the campaign to ensure that the as many people as possible hear the positive message of Yes.

“Today’s poll also shows that after seven years in government, the SNP’s popularity is continuing to grow – and we are now 18 points ahead of Labour. If a Scottish Parliamentary election was held today with this result, the SNP would retain the 65 seats we currently hold. This is a remarkable achievement – and underlines our strong record of delivering for people across the country.

“Only a Yes vote guarantees the full powers that Scotland needs to thrive and build on our success. History shows that past promises on further powers are quickly forgotten about – the people of Scotland will not be fooled by the No camp’s panicked attempts to placate people into voting for the status quo.

“Scotland is a wealthy nation – richer per head than the UK, France and Japan. With the full fiscal powers that only a Yes vote guarantees, we can work toward becoming the fairer, more prosperous country that we all want to see.

“And with independence, we will no longer be held back by Westminster governments we didn’t vote for. Scotland will get the government it votes for – every time.”

Results of the Survation poll (sample size 1,004 between 6 June and 10 June)

Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 39% (+2 since May)
No 44% (-2 since May)
Undecided 17% (No change)

Excluding undecided:
Yes 47% (+ 3% since May)
No 53% (- 3% since May)

If you were certain David Cameron was going to remain UK Prime Minister after the Westminster General Election in 2015, how would you vote in the independence referendum?
Yes 44%
No 38%
Undecided 18%

Excluding undecided:
Yes 54%
No 46%

Party ratings: Constituency
SNP – 46.2 (+2.5)
Lab – 28.3 (-3.4)
Con – 13 (-2.4)
Lib Dem – 6.2 (+1.3)
Scottish Green – 2.5 (+1.5)
UKIP – 3.2 (+1.1)
Others – 0.5 (-0.7)

Party ratings: Region
SNP – 39.3 (+0.2)
Lab – 26.2 (-0.2)
Con – 10.4 (-0.9)
Lib Dem – 6.1 (NC)
Scottish Green – 10.0 (+1.3)
UKIP – 7.0 (-0.1)
Others – 1.0 (-0.3)

Total ratings (%)
SNP –50.4 (Seats: 65)
Lab – 28.7 (Seats: 37)
Con – 7.8 (Seats: 10)
Lib Dem – 4.7 (Seats: 6)
Scottish Green – 8.5 (Seats: 11)
UKIP – 0 (Seats: 0)