YouGov polling: independence and voting intention


by Dave Taylor

We can note, but attach little significance to, YouGov’s latest Scottish sample of 148 which shows SNP leading Labour by 35% to 31%.  However the findings of the latest poll confirm YouGov’s previous polling that Scots are less afraid of being the victims of crime than those in England.

While 45% of those in England are concerned about being the victims of  burglary, robbery or mugging; only 35% of Scots are.

The YouGov poll on Independence has had only limited detail published.  For some strange reason, while voting intention for Westminster and Holyrood was gathered, neither the Scotsman nor YouGov have chosen to publish it.

We do have the unweighted voting intention from the respondents, but the sample was over-representative of middle class voters and the elderly (categories in which there is less support for the SNP), so the following figures will exaggerate Labour and underestimate SNP support.

In the absence of proper figures, however, these are the unweighted voting intentions.

For Westminster, Labour lead SNP by 43% to 35%.  For Holyrood, the SNP lead in the constituencies by 45% to 36% and by 41% to 37% on the list.

We can only speculate as to why the Scotsman is so reluctant to publish the weighted voting intention.  It seems reasonable to assume that, had the figures favoured Labour, they would have been published.

On the independence poll, much has been made of the fact that a Holyrood vote for the SNP was not a vote for independence (though we all knew that anyway).  However it is notable that 70% of those intending to vote SNP for Holyrood also support independence, while 11% are undecided.

Among Labour and LD supporters, three-quarters would oppose independence, with the others split fairly equally between independence and “undecided”.

Only 5% of Tories support independence, but few are undecided.