By Russell Bruce
The Ipsos MORI poll for STV indicates steady progress for the SNP and the Greens. Ipsos are predicting 70 seats for the SNP, 25 for the Conservatives, 19 for Labour, 11 for the Greens and 4 to the LibDems.
The Alba party are stuck on 3% along with a further 2% for the other miscellaneous parties. Based on this poll, 5% of regional list votes will fail to elect anybody. People have the right in a democracy to vote for the party or person of their choosing even if the arithmetic indicates their vote will not count towards electing anybody because their choice fails to get through the 5% barrier that is the starting point for allocating list seats.
There are 4 weeks to go to May 6th although the postal votes will be heading back to local authority returning officers in the days before then. This poll will no doubt have an impact on those who have been thinking of voting for Alba. Going with the winners is highly motivating for most people and the winners on the Indy ticket continue to be the SNP and the Greens. Alex Salmond did not help his cause by yesterday’s non-event when he chose to relaunch the 1320 Declaration of Arbroath. We all know about that and its influence on democratic thinking but this is 2021 and Scotland needs people with a vision to resolve Scotland’s democratic deficit at a time when Westminster is carrying out an assault on our devolved parliament.
The voting intention percentage share on the regional list gives the SNP 38%, Conservatives 21%, Labour 18%, Greens 12% and Lib Dems 6%. with the smaller parties taking the other 5% of the vote. The combined Indy vote stands at 50%. The unionist parties total 45%. The others on a combined total of 5% will gain no list seats.
Newsnet sticks with its editorial position of backing the SNP and or the Greens as the best means of ensuring progress towards an independence referendum. There will be more polls in the days and weeks ahead but for now the dice seem to be firmly cast in favour of the SNP and Greens.
The Ipsos seat projection gives the SNP and Greens a total of 81 seats amounting to 63% of the 129 seats in the parliament. If the SNP win at least 65 seats they have a majority if they win the 70 they would have a groundbreaking 11 seat majority to get their programme through the Scottish parliament. I think we can lay aside hype of a supermajority and Mr Salmond returning to Holyrood with 3 other Alba MSPs from the North East region. We would not rule out yet that he might make it 1 for Alba but that would be to cut a very solitary figure in parliament.